Food Security Modelling

DOI : http://dx.doi.org/10.13005/bbra/2259

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A focus of the paper is a problem of “observability” regarding food security. Known scientific approaches to identification of a similar condition have not provided us with a grounded solution to refer to actual borders of security (or standards of mutual penetration). Their absence makes methodological capacities of modelling essentially disturbed. It is levelling of these contradictions that is an aim of this research. The authors put forward and give a scientific rationale for a hypothesis for fragmentary food security, an essence of which is come down to a research on certain agricultural commodity groups. In a critical review, features of security are specified. A theoretical development of authors’ provisions have resulted in formalization of a number of models built in terms of the dependence factor or inherent openness of the food system. These and other features have made it possible to offer a distinctive technique for an analytical interpretation of findings, including an assessment of risk for lost security condition in a food aspect of the issue.

food security; agriculture; security modelling