Volume 12, number 2
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Dyachenko I. L, Khetagurova V. S, Brykhanova G. A, Sosnov M. N, Bryantseva M. V. The Estimation of Possibilities of Product and Imported Raw Substitution. Biosci Biotech Res Asia 2015;12(2)
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The Estimation of Possibilities of Product and Imported Raw Substitution

Irina Leonidovna Dyachenko, Valeria Shotaevna Khetagurova, Galina Anatolyevna Brykhanova, Maxim N. Sosnov, Marina V. Bryantseva

Russian State Social University, 4,1, V.Pika, Moscow, 129226, Russia

ABSTRACT: there is the estimation of potential possibilities of a food and imported raw substitution based on the statistics and economic-mathematical modeling on the sheep livestock sector’s example of the livestock’s complex in Russia. There are the proposals of the methods of the potential growth of the ewes livestock in the sheep agricultural enterprises and farms with the results of the estimation of these proposals, and the lamb’s production increase in connection with this growth, and also the revenue increase for the sheep production in case of the implementation of this type of the import substitution.

KEYWORDS: the threat of the national security; the food independence; the high level of of the food’s self-provision; the method of the possibilities’ estimation of gaining of the sheep livestock and lamb production

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Dyachenko I. L, Khetagurova V. S, Brykhanova G. A, Sosnov M. N, Bryantseva M. V. The Estimation of Possibilities of Product and Imported Raw Substitution. Biosci Biotech Res Asia 2015;12(2)

Introduction

Food and laws

The food security supposes the system of public relations, which was generated among the people to provide their normal performance. The federal law, which was accepted by lower house and called “Concerning food security in Russian federation” has the conception of the food sovereignty. It considers as unfulfilled if the essential products ‘annual issuance is less than eight percent of the annual population’s needs.  The important condition of the country’s food security is the self-maintenance, which means satisfaction in food by domestic producer. The level of such satisfaction can be counted as a quotient of the gross production to consumption. (Kryukova at al., 2013; Kryukova at al., 2014)

The satisfaction in food depends on a level of food producing per inhabitant.

The competitive imported food can displace the goods of the domestic producers from the domestic consumption thanks to the free trading rules (Shutkov, 2011).

The demand’s reduction to the domestic products leads to collapsing of national manufacturing in a certain industries.

If we consider that the domestic producing’s growth is the long lasting thing, and could last several years, then the contents of the political demands closely related to the food situation in the country. The food is necessary to the man every day and any shortage in food supply can lead to political instability in the country (Ushachev, 2012).

The high level of self-satisfaction in agricultural products is the way of the crisis’ preventing, and can provide stability on society development. (Borodin, 2015)

The ability to pay for food decreasing in a face of walking crisis. The level of self-satisfaction in a food in such a situation can be taken not only in appreciation of rapidly reduced demand in a food, but in level of satisfaction of numerical demand in a food. (Kaurova at al., 2014;  Maloletko at al., 2015; Vinogradova at al., 2015)

The progressive development of socially oriented economics under the state’s regulation influence must provide the convergence the payable demand to the necessities in a food in a future (Shutkov , 2008; Kryukova at al., 2013; Kryukova at al., 2014).

The very important indicators, which show the potential possibilities of the country to satiate those necessities in a food, are:

  • The size of production and consumption per inhabitant.
  • The level of self-supply of the main kinds of a food
  • The levels of their import/export indicators

The analysis shows the country can keep her food sovereignty if the quotient of the import to the domestic manufacturing vary over twenty percent. At the same time, the food dependence appears in the face of deficit of the financial possibilities by state and by business for the development of the domestic manufacturing, import payments, and fully depend of food and financial donations.

Consumption of food

The current situation in food supply for the Russia’s population in view of difficult international status, climate and ecological decline, places the import substitution problem to the center of the Russia’s food security question as the most important priority of the national security(Khetagurova et al.,2014).

Our country has enough arable squares of the land, water sources, scientific and technical possibilities, human resources, which are capable to resolve such a question with the state support.

There was a significant change in food consumption by the population of Russia for the last decade, to the prevalence of ration of vegetable food over the ration of animal food (Kutenkov,2010).

In accordance with actual and normative consumptions of the main food products per inhabitant, the level of food’s provision and his consumption per capita by all kinds of the food, except for potato and bread, is significantly below the rational patterns. There are the insufficient meat, milk and fish products in a food ration of the population. The consumption by these products declined on 34 %, 42 % and 54 % accordingly since the pre reform period.

One of the reasons of such a situation is the subsidization of export food supplies by the European Union and the United States, which in conjunction with weak customs protection in our country lead to suppression of the domestic manufacturing. Zeldner A.G. and Redko S.I. have noticed that it took place in a face of the absence of the state’s help to the agricultural sector. The Russian food manufacturing became noncompetitive because of the import’s donations and the growth in spending for the domestic products, the arable lands were dramatically declined, and the food producing was reduced. The imported products have monopolized the meat, sugar, cheese, butter and sunflower oil markets as a result. The Russia has lost the food security by these products, which is the important component of the national security (Zeldner and Redko, 2003).

The main important condition of the country’s food provision is the prevention from usage of low-quality products, which are dangerous for the human health: environmental pollution, raw and food products are polluted by microbiological organisms, pesticides, the higher chemical concentration by fertilized soil, the deviation from technological standards in food’s producing and keeping.

The importance of timely and objective estimation of quality of the imported food becomes more and more important because the lion’s share of the consumption of the food products in our country is the imported food, especially an animal food.

Statistical data

The reduce of agricultural manufacturing per inhabitant, the reduce of the consumption of the significant part of the types of a food products, their partial compensation by the imported products, all of these things demonstrate the presence of the serious problem of the food security. During the end of the eighties, the agricultural producing has reduced rapidly.

The most difficult situation appeared in animal industry. According to Rosstat, the livestock cattle has reduced from 57 to 20,1 million units (in 2,8 times) during 1990-2012 period, the pigs from 38,3 to 17,3 million units (in 2,2 times), sheep and goats from 58,2 to 22,9 million units (in 2,5 times). (Illustration #1). (Dyachenko 2013).

Figure 1 Illustration #1: The level of reducing of the livestock population in Russia (by all households), %

Click here to view full figure

The rapid decrease of livestock population has led to massive decline of manufacturing of all agricultural products. The production of poultry and livestock by 2006-2012 period has decreased on 35,2 %, a pork production has decreased on 39 %, a large horned livestock production has decreased on 56,2 %, the sheep and goats production has decreased on 52,9 % in comparison with 1986-1991 period. The milk production has decreased on 28,6 %, the wool production has decreased in 4,2 times. In the last several years, the pork and sheep industries showed positive trend as well as in livestock increase and in livestock production at the same time. The sheep breeding in Russia always provides the production of high quality lamb, wool, sheepskin, different milk products and cheese till recently. These possibilities in sheep breeding, unused now, should be exploited to perform the tasks of not only the food and imported raw substitution, but for the export’s strength creation by all types of sheep production.

According to analysis, which was made by authors, there is the presence of the potential possibilities of forage of agricultural lands in Russia, available to afford for about to 300 million units of livestock in large agricultural enterprises and peasant farms.

It has to estimate the possible gaining of the number of ewes in sheep farming in the midterm to increase the volume of mutton manufacturing, a high-quality wool and sheepskin. Each breed of sheep can provide different productivity; depend on keeping conditions, feeding, pedigree work, hybreeding. There are 39 breeds of sheep in agricultural enterprises in Russia, 14 of them are the fine wool, 11 are the semi fine wooled, which are 75 % from the whole livestock in this type of household (Hatataev,2013). Then let us analyze the possibility of gaining the sheep livestock by using the fine wool and semi fine wool breeds as a base. One of the indicators of the efficiency of a sheep breeding is the obtainment and maintaining the bigger animal yield, which is used for reproduction and expansion of the main herd and for meat’s fattening. The biological fertility of the fine wooled and semi wooled wombs amount to 130-140 % if they have optimal feeding and maintenance according to Russian scientific researches. There are more than 140 ewes on 100 units of livestock in the flocks, where the targeted selection was taking place by kit of features (Yasakov et al., 1978).

Let us estimate the potential of increasing the livestock of sheep, goat and animal products on the fine wool and semi wool ewes, by using the economic-mathematical modelling. Applicable to large sheep farms which use modern technologies of reproduction and maintenance of a livestock including artificial insemination and interpedigree etc(Dyachenko,2009).

The method

The research objective consists in development of theoretical and methodical provisions, and also practical recommendations about increase of competitiveness of a meat subcomplex in modern conditions of managing.

Realization of the specified purpose assumes the solution of the following tasks: to define economic essence and factors of competitiveness of production of a meat subcomplex;

to open theoretical bases of essence of development of a meat podkopleks in Russia;

to give an assessment to competitiveness of meat production and to prove the factors influencing it;

to give a scientific assessment of the developed relations between suppliers and processors of meat, to offer measures for their improvement.

As object of research the economic mechanisms, tendencies and factors influencing competitiveness of a meat subcomplex of agrarian and industrial complex of the Russian Federation served.

Object of research were agricultural producers and the meat-processing enterprises, the market of meat and meat production of Russia.

The theoretical and methodological basis of research was made by the works of domestic and foreign scientists-economists, materials of monographs and articles in the Russian and foreign editions devoted to the solution of questions of ensuring food security. As initial material for dissertation research statistical and analytical materials of Rosstat of Russia, data of the state customs statistics, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, materials of the Food and agricultural organization UN (FAO), Institute of researches of a food and agrarian policy (FAPRI), the International institute of researches of food policy (IFPRI), the information Internet resources served. The legal base of research is presented by directive, standard and legal documents and acts of the Russian Federation, Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan.

In the course of research methods were used: monographic, analytical, comparative, system and cause and effect analysis, economical and statistical, abstract and logical, settlement and constructive.

The results 

The economic mathematical estimation of the possibilities of foo and imported raw substitution on the sheep breeding industry in Russia shows the economic feasibility and pertinence of targeted capacity of the ewes’ livestock to the 100 – 300 million units in agricultural enterprises and in sheep breeding farms. This capacity can be performed to the following 8-11 years.

If we have such a ewes’ livestock it is possible to gain the production of:

the mutton (in a slaughter weight) during 10 years to 1500 thsd tons  (more than 10 kg per Russia’s inhabitant per year), and further till 3500 thsd tons, which could be a large base of mutton for export to the neighbor countries;

the wool during 10 years to 280 thsd tons (more than 1,8 kg per Russia’s inhabitant per year);

670 thsd tons during 13 years (more than 4,4 kg per Russia’s inhabitant per year), and further to 670 thsd tons, which could be the large base for the textile industry.

The discussion

The assessment methods of gaining possibilities of the ewes’ livestock

We take the livestock of sheep, which contains K ewes. The animal yield is P units per year

P = pK                                                                                                    (1)

where:

P – the quotient of the animal yield units to the number of ewes by the beginning of the year

The livestock of animal yield includes K units of the young sheep and

Q units of muttons.

The livestock of the animal yield of a young sheep is divided on 2 groups

           k= k1+ k2,

where:

k1 – young pedigree sheep assigned for ewes increasing, and k2 – repair young sheep, which are using for the unproductive ewes replacement.

Thus

k1 = aK,                                                                                                                      (2)

athe quotient of the young pedigree sheep to the ewes at the beginning of the year

k2 = bK,                                                                                                                (3)

b the quotient of the repair young sheep to the ewes at the beginning of the year

The livestock of the animal yield of a young mutton assigned to fattening and sale as a meat.

Thus

q = cK,                                                                                                               (4)

c the quotient of the young muttons to the number of ewes at the beginning of the year

From these expressions (1-4) we have:

P = pK = k1+ k2 + q = (a+ b + c) K                                                        

where

            p= a+ b + c                                                                                        (5)

Let us observe the next ewes livestock gaining model in sheep breeding households.  All the livestock k of the young sheep from the annual animal P yield is heading to reproduction of the ewes livestock. The livestock of young pedigree sheep, which is headed to increasing of ewes’ livestock, from the equalization 5 is the following:

k1 = aK =   pK –  (b + c) K = K(p- b – c)                                                 (6)

                 a= p- b – c                                                                                (7)

According to equalization 6, the increasing of the ewes livestock is directly depend from the indicator p  – the quotient of animal yield to the number of ewes at the beginning of the year, including from b – the quotient of repair young sheep to the number of ewes at the beginning of the year and from c – the quotient of young muttons to the number of ewes at the beginning of the year (Dyachenko,2014).

There are the results of indicator’s estimation in the spreadsheet #1 a- the quotient of pedigree young sheep to the number of ewes, which are depended on p-b-c indicators, included in equalization 7.

Spreadsheet #1

The indicator a estimation which is depending from indicators p-b-c

Fractional quotient of animal yield ( p ) 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2
 Fractional quotient of repair young sheep( b ) 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15
Fractional quotient of the young muttons(c ) 0,4 0,45 0,5 0,55 0,6
Fractional quotient of  the pedigree young sheep (a) 0,25 0,3 0,35 0,4 0,45

The equalization, which describes the increasing of ewes livestock on the end of the year (n-1) or at the beginning of the year (n) in the sheep household, with the accordance of equalizations (6) and (7) can be submitted as:

K1 = K ( 1+a )
K2 =K1( 1+a )= K                                                      

 ……

Kn = K                                                                                                   (8) 

There were 53,3 % from 24,2 million units of sheep and goat livestock in use by large agricultural enterprises by 2013. Thus the ewes’ livestock was about 8 million units in those households. Exactly this ewes’ livestock should be taken by our appraisal as a base (K=8 million) for the potential intensive gaining of sheep livestock on immediate prospects, for the wool’s and mutton’s production in our country.

The usage of biological possibilities of fertility of ewes’ livestock for the effective manufacturing of the sheep products mostly depends on the its keeping process organization, the complete normative feeding, the science-based artificial insemination, interpedigree, regulation of lambing by optimal time frame and weaning the lamps from ewes, provision of artificial feeding’s conditions and scientifically proven lamb breeding. That is why the significant difference of the quotient of p units of animal yield of lambs to the number of ewes exists in various sheep households. This variability from p = 0,8 to p=1,2 (1,4 ) can be seen in modern economic conditions of maintenance of agricultural sheep production. The level of the quotient of p units of animal yield of lambs to the number of ewes should be p = 0,8 to rise wool and meat productivity of fine wooled sheep livestock in the sheep households, where there were no preparations for the personnel, which was not prepared and which was not motivated for the every day’s work maintenance to obtain and to save the necessary number of animal yield (Kulakov et al., 2014). The value p=1,2 and more is in the line of leading sheep households (Zavgorodnyaya,2014). That is why the spreadsheet #2 has the estimation’s results of possible increase of livestock of ewes Kn in agricultural enterprises and in peasant farms, which depend of the quotient of p units of the animal yield to the number of ewes.

Spreadsheet #2

The estimation’s results of possible increase of livestock of ewes Kn in agricultural enterprises

n (years) the quotient of units of the animal yield to the number of ewes

 at the beginning of the year

 

р = 0,8 р=0,9 р =1,0 р =1,1
The first  10 000 000 10 400 000 10 800 000  11 200 000
The second

второй

 12 500 000 13 520 000 14 580 000  15 680 000
The third  15 620 000 17 576 000 19 683 000  21 952 000
The fourth  19 530 000 22 849 000 26 572 000  30 733 000
The fifth  24 410 000 29 703 000 35 872 000  43 026 000
The sixth  30 510 000 38 145 000 48 427 000  60 236 000
The seventh  38 150 000 50 199 000 65 377 000  84 331 000
The eighth  47 680 000 65 258 000 88 259 000  118 063 000
The ninths  59 600 000 84 836 000 119 150 000  165 288 000
The tenth 74 500 000 110 287 000 160 085 000  231 140 000
The eleventh  93 120 000 143 373 000 216 115 000   323 596 000
The twelweth 116 406 000

145 508

186 385 000 291 755 000
The thirteenth 145 508 000 242 300 000 393 870 000
The fourteenth 181 885 000
The fifteenth 227 356 000

According to spreadsheet #2, the possible increase of the ewes livestock strongly depend on really secured annual animal yield in sheep breeding households. For example, the ewes sheep livestock could be increased by 10 years with p=0,8 from 8 million units to 74 million units (in 8 times), with p=0,9 – to 102 million units (in 19 times). It could be taken for 9 years to reach the 100 million units of a ewes of sheep livestock(The branch targeted program,2012) in Russia with the existing average level of p=0,95 in agricultural sheep breeding enterprises, and it could also be taken for 13 years to reach the 300 million units of a ewes of sheep livestock with the same conditions. It could be taken for 8 years to reach the 100 million units of the ewes of the sheep livestock with the existing average level of p=1,1 in agricultural sheep breeding enterprises, and it could also be taken for 11 years to reach the 300 million units of a ewes of sheep livestock with the same conditions.

The assessment methods of possibilities of gaining of the mutton’s volume production

Let us take the next model of increasing the volumes of mutton production with the simultaneous gaining of ewes livestock in sheep breeding households.

All the livestock of the young muttons q from the annual animal yield P is intended for the sale as a meat. The k2 culled ewes are intended for a sale as a meat because the k2 repair ewes are used to replace the unproductive ewes. The whole livestock of the young muttons and culled ewes, which are intended for sale as a meat follows from the equalizations 3 and 4

q + k2 = cKn + bKn

The fattening of the young muttons is stipulated at the age of 8-9 months under 45-50 kg of the live weight, and the fattening of the culled ewes under 80-90 kg of the live weight according to recommendations of the sheep breeding science and “The norms of the nutritions during the fattening of the young and adult sheep, fine wool and semi fine wool breeds per unit on one day” (Venedictov et al.,1988). That is why the average slaughter weight of the each of q young muttons can be admitted as equal to h1=16 kg after fattening, and the average slaughter weight of the each of  k2 sheep ewes can be admitted as equal to h2 = 25 kg after fattening. Considering the stipulated conditions, the average volume of the mutton Hn (the slaughter weight), which was received from the livestock Kn of structural sheep ewes during the year, can be defined from the following equalization:

      Hn = h1*cKn + h2* bKn = Kn(h1*c + h2* b)                                              (9)

The spreadsheet #3

The estimation of increasing results of the mutton’s production Hn (thousands of tons) in agricultural enterprises and sheep breeding farms

n (years) The  quotient  of the units of animal yield to the number of ewes
р = 0,8 р=0,9 р =1,0 р =1,1
The first 101 500    113 900   126 900    140 600
The second

второй

126 900    145 000   171 200    196 900
The third 158 500    192 500   231 300    275 600
The fourth 198 200    250 200   312 200     385 900
The fifth 247  800    325 200    421 500     540 200
The sixth 309 700    417 700    569 200     756 300
The seventh 387 200    549 700    768 100 1  058 800
The eighth 484 000    714  600 1 037 000 1 481 900
The ninths 605 000    928 900 1 400 000 2 075 200
The tenth 756 200 1 207 600 1 880 100    2 902 000
The eleventh 945 200 1 569 900 2 539  200    4 062 700
The twelweth 1 177 900

145 508

2 040 900 3 427 900
The thirteenth 1 476 900 2 653 100 4 627 700
The fourteenth 1 846 100
The fifteenth 2 307 700

There are the results of the estimation of the potential muttons production’s growth in accordance to equalization (9) in the spreadsheet #3, which are depended on the livestock of the ewes Kn in agricultural enterprises and sheep breeding farms and on the quotient of p units of animal yield to the number of the ewes. It’s possible with the scheduled achievement of the average value p = 0,95 in  a 2014 – 2020 period(), and with the usage of the current potential of the mutton production by the large agricultural enterprises and sheep breeding farms of Russia, to gain the production of mutton

  • 1500 thsd tons during ten years (more than 10 kg per Russia’s inhabitant per year)
  • 3500 thsd tons during 13 years (more than 20 kg per Russia’s inhabitant per year)

The assessment methods of possibilities of gaining of the wool production

Let us take the next model of increasing of wool production with the simultaneous gaining of ewes livestock in sheep breeding households.

All the livestock of the young sheep k, q young muttons and sheep ewes Kn from the annual animal yield P are intended for the wool production.

The livestock of the sheep, which is intended to the wool production according to equalizations (1-4) is the following:

      k + q + Kn = (a+b+c)Kn+Kn

Basing on condition of having the wool (kg)

-from 1 sheep ewe – m kg; from 1 young sheep – f kg; from 1 young mutton – t kg

The average volume Mn of wool, which we have received by the year form the livestock Kn of structural sheep ewes and animal yield with the stipulate conditions, can be determined from the following equalization:

                                  Mn = (a+b)f*Kn +ct*Kn+m*Kn =[(a+b)f+ct+m]*Kn              (10)

The average wool production (after cleaning) from the each ewe can be admitted as equal to m=2,0 kg, from the each of young mutton can be admitted as equal to t=0,9 kg after fattening, from the each of k young sheep can be admitted as equal to t=0,8 kg if the animals have the normative feeding, maintenance and fattening in consideration of sheep breeding farms experience (Kulakov et al.,, 2014). There are the results of the estimation of the potential wool’s production’s growth in accordance to equalization (10) in the spreadsheet #4, which are depended on the livestock of the ewes Kn in agricultural enterprises and sheep breeding farms and on the quotient of p units of livestock to the number of the ewes.

The spreadsheet #4

The estimation of increasing results of the wool’s production Mn (thousands of tons) in agricultural enterprises and sheep breeding farms

n (years) The  quotient  of the units of animal yield to the number of ewes
р = 0,8 р=0,9 р =1,0 р =1,1
The first   21,4    22,1      22,8      23,5
The second

второй

  26,8    28,7      30,8      32,9
The third   33,5    37.4      41,5      46,0
The fourth   41,9    48,6      56,1      64,4
The fifth   52,31    63,2      75,7      90,2
The sixth   65,4    82,2    102,2    126,3
The seventh   81,8 106,8    138,0    176,8
The eighth 102,2 138,9    186,3    247,5
The ninths 127,8 180,5    251,5    346,5
The tenth 159,8 234,7    339,5    485,1
The eleventh 199,7 305,0    458,4    679,2
The twelweth 249,6 396,6    618,8
The thirteenth 312,0 515,6    835,4
The fourteenth 390,0
The fifteenth 487,6

It’s possible with the scheduled achievement of the average value p = 0,95 in  a 2014 – 2020 period, and with the usage of the current potential of the wool production by the large agricultural enterprises and sheep breeding farms of Russia, to gain the production of wool

  • 280 thsd tons during ten years (more than 1,8 kg per Russia’s inhabitant per year)
  • 670 thsd tons during 13 years (more than 4,4 kg per Russia’s inhabitant per year)

The assessment methods of possibilities of gaining of the sheepskin production

Let us take the next model of increasing of sheepskin production with the simultaneous gaining of ewes livestock in sheep breeding households.

All the livestock of the q young muttons and culled ewes k2 from the annual animal yield P are intended for the fattening and slaughter can be used for the sheepskin production (cut unwashed wool, 2013).

The livestock of the sheep, which is intended to the sheepskin production according to equalizations (1-4) is the following:

  k2 + q  = (b+c)Kn,

where d1= b*Kn – is the number of  large sheepskins, and d2 = c*Kn is the number of the mutton skins.

The average volume Dn (thsd of units) of sheepskin, which we have received by the year form the livestock Kn of structural sheep ewes and animal yield with the stipulate conditions, can be determined from the following equalization:

Dn = d1 + d2 = b*Kn + c*Kn                                                                         (11)

There are the results of the estimation of the potential sheepskin production’s growth in accordance to equalization (11) in the spreadsheet #5, which are depended on the livestock of the ewes in agricultural enterprises and sheep breeding farms.

The spreadsheet #5

The estimation of increasing results of the sheepskin production d1+d2 (thousands of units) in agricultural enterprises and sheep breeding farms

n (years) The  quotient  of the units of animal yield to the number of ewes
р = 0,8 р=0,9 р =1,0 р =1,1
The first   5 500     6 240         7 000          7 800
The second   6 875     8 100        9  500         11 000
The third   8 600    10 500        12 800         15 300
The fourth   10 740    13 600        17 200         21 500
The fifth   13 430    17 600       23 300         30 000
The sixth   16 780    22 900        31 400         42 000
The seventh   20 980    29 800        42 500         59 000
The eighth   26 220    38 800        57 400         82 600
The ninths   32 780    50 400        77 400         115 700
The tenth   40 980    65 500      104 000         161 800
The eleventh   51 200    85 200      140 500         226 500
The twelweth   64 000

145 508

 110 700      189 600
The thirteenth   80 000  144 000      256 000
The fourteenth  100 000
The fifteenth  125 000

It’s possible with the scheduled achievement of the average value p = 0,95 in  a 2014 – 2020 period, and with the usage of the current potential of the sheepskin production by the large agricultural enterprises and sheep breeding farms of Russia, to gain the production of sheepskin

  • 84 000 thsd units during ten years
  • 200 000 thsd units during 13 years

The assessment methods of possibilities of gaining the volume of revenue during the food and imported raw substitution sales

The gaining of ewes livestock, the volume of mutton production, the wool and the sheepskin is stipulated in accordance to the observed food and raw substitution implementation model.

The volume of sales of the sheep breeding products in n-year Wn can be estimated in accordance of the following equalization:

Wn = W1*k + W2*Hn +W3*Mn +W4*Dn                                                                        (12)

Where:

W1*k – the revenue for the k young sheep sales, which are intended for the ewes’ livestock increase, including the replacement of the unproductive ones;

W2*Hn – the revenue for the muttons sales;

W3*Mn the revenue for the wool sales;

W4*Dn – the revenue for the sheepskin sales.

The price for the live sheep W1 is 74286 rubles per ton, the price for the cut unwashed wool W3 is 62270 rubles per ton in average(The cut unwashed wool, 2013).  by 2013 in accordance of the Federal Service of State Statistics. The price of sale for the sheep in a slaughter weight W2 is 125 rubles per kg, and the average prices of the sheepskin W4 sales are 150 rubles per unit in 2013 according to the National union of the sheep farmers (The statistic materials of agricultural development in Russia,2013).There is the estimation of the volume of the expected revenue, which was carried out for the further years with the reference to pointed sales prices (in prices 2013). In accordance with the recommended guidelines for feeding bright, designed to increase the number of ewes, (Kalashnikov,1985) h3 is based on 50 kg.

The spreadsheet #6

The results of estimation of gaining the volumes of the revenue (billion rubles) Wn in agricultural enterprises and in sheep breeding farms

n (years) The  quotient  of the units of animal yield to the number of ewes
р = 0,8 р=0,9 р =1,0 р =1,1
The first  30,81 35,12 39,70  44,50
The second

второй

 38,51

 

5132

45,65 53,60  62,30
The third  48,10 59,35 72,30  87.21
The fourth  60,18 77,15 97,67  111,11
The fifth  75,23 100,3 131,88  170,94
The sixth  94,00 130,49 178,03  239,32
The seventh  117,5 169,50 240,34  335,05
The eighth  146,93 220,40 324,46 469,08
The ninths  183,66 286,46 438,02 656,71
The tenth 229,57 372,40 591,33  919,39
The eleventh  286,97 484,11 798,30   1 287,15
The twelweth 358,70 621,35 1 077,70
The thirteenth 448,38 818,15 1 454,90
The fourteenth 560,48
The fifteenth 700,60

There are the results of the estimation of the potential revenue’s growth in accordance to equalization (12) in the spreadsheet #6, which are depended on the livestock of the ewes Kn in agricultural enterprises and sheep breeding farms and on the quotient of p units of animal yield to the number of the ewes. It’s possible with the scheduled achievement of the average value p = 0,95 in  a 2014 – 2020 period, and with the usage of the current potential of the sheep breeding production by the large agricultural enterprises and sheep breeding farms of Russia, to gain the revenue of sales to:

  • 480 billion rubles during ten years;
  • 1100 billion rubles during 13 years.

Сonclusion

The results of the estimation of the potential possibilities of the sheep production’s import substitution are shown on the example of the recovery and the further gaining of the sheep livestock in agricultural enterprises and farms. These results are testifying in the favor of the tasks realization of full self – provision of the animal food’s production as well as export’s potential creation of the sheep’s production supplies. There is the urgent need to develop and to implement the strategy and activities of the complex development of the animal food’s production to the close future in a short time according to the authors.  The natural climatic terms, the large volume of the unused agricultural squares and lands, the unresolved social-economic problems in development of the rural areas in Russia, all these listed thing can be the base of the strategy mentioned above. This can be seen in many research works of many scientists and the experts.

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